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Home Sales are Expected to Increase in the Fourth Quarter as Rates Begin to Show a More Consistent Declining Trend.

The Number of Millionaires in the Golden State has Surged.

 

Aerial view of Emerald Bay with the title “Summer in Emerald Bay.”

August 13, 2023

Good morning,

With the economy showing signs of growth, home sales are expected to increase in the fourth quarter as rates begin to show a more consistent declining trend. If you have any questions regarding our local housing market, please reach out.

 

Please pray for our friends in Maui. Help by donating here.

Information + Updates

DID YOU KNOW? 

The Ultra-Rich Are Flourishing and Sticking Around in California. The number of millionaires in the Golden State has surged at a time lower-income residents are leaving. (Bloomberg.com)

 

DID YOU KNOW? 

US banks suffered almost $19bn of losses on soured loans in the second quarter, the highest level in more than three years as lenders contend with rising defaults among credit card and commercial real estate borrowers, an increase of almost 17% on the previous 3 months and 75% higher than the same period last year. Capital One lost the most by far. Thanks FED! (FT)

 

DID YOU KNOW? 

The U.S. Treasury Department will soon propose a rule that would  require real estate professionals such as title insurers to report the identities of the beneficial owners of companies buying real estate in cash to the Treasury's Financial Crimes Enforcement Network. This is aimed at ending anonymous luxury-home purchases, closing a loophole that the agency says allows corrupt oligarchs, terrorists and other criminals to hide ill-gotten gains. (Yahoo)

 

DID YOU KNOW? 

Oil prices are SURGING.... Olive oil prices! Especially in Spain that produces around 50% of the world's output where drought and weather have decimated crops. A metric ton of olive oil now costs more than 10 times a metric ton of crude. In 2019, before the pandemic, the ratio was less than five times. Thankfully the percentage of olive oil consumed by humans is just 2% of global consumption.

 

DID YOU KNOW?

The MICROgrid? A microgrid is a network of buildings that essentially acts as a miniature power grid. It can operate outside of the larger municipal electrical system by ensuring backup power for the entire development, which can be produced by a solar array system and stored in a battery. Over 400 housing developments around the US are doing this already, mostly solar-powered, bringing the costs of utilities down for owners with systems that are not reliant on the big grids.

 

DID YOU KNOW? 

In Menifee, Calif., KB Home is developing a microgrid with more than 200 houses that come with a heat pump, electric appliances, solar panels, a battery and a shared community battery system. California now mandates that most new homes include solar panels, this neighborhood about 80 miles southeast of Los Angeles is a test case to see how large-scale communities can be built to be energy resilient, while reducing carbon emissions and lowering energy costs. Maura Short

 

DID YOU KNOW? 

After years of growth and escalation, China's consumer prices are now falling....DEflation! (CNBC)

Real Estate News

In a recent Wall Street Journal article, "Real Estate Haven's Risk with $1 Trillion Due," former Blackstone partner Peter Sotoloff warns of challenges for apartment landlords due to rising interest rates and refinance risks. The surge in rates, up by over 550 bp since the Fed's rate hikes, has impacted multifamily values by 14%. With $980 billion of multifamily debt maturing between 2023 and 2027, this will further pressure values.

 

However, not all apartment owners are in a dire situation. Despite challenges, those with longer debt maturities, acquired at lower leverage, and fixed debt might avoid the worst. Relying on high leverage floating rate debt for equity returns seems risky. While pain is inevitable, a hydrogen bomb scenario appears unlikely for well-positioned property owners.

Financial table of commercial mortgage loan origination, balance, default, and credit loss statistics by funding year, 1994–2023.

YOY Comparison

Emerald Bay Sales

January – August 12th

Table comparing Emerald Bay home sale and asking prices for January–August 2023 and 2022.

In Escrow

Coastal ocean view with blue water, distant shoreline, and homes along a rocky headland.

1680 Louise Street | North Laguna

For Sale

Modern white hillside home with large windows and a balcony at sunset.

322 Emerald Bay

$14,900,000

6 Bedrooms | 7 Bathrooms | 5,493 Sq.Ft.

 

A highly desirable and rare luxury 6 bedroom Emerald Bay residence has come to market. Flawless custom construction seamlessly incorporates a clean contemporary style with affluent coastal living.

 

This home was designed with ultimate privacy in mind and to enjoy the ocean and Catalina views. Nearly 5500 square feet of spacious living surround an exquisite outdoor courtyard complete with a spa, covered dining loggia, outdoor fireplace, grilling station and lush landscaping. Nearly every room welcomes ocean breezes and ample natural sunlight through over-scaled windows and doors. Several balconies wrap the front exterior of the home extending the living area.

 

The chef's kitchen boasts high-end appliances, a large island and a dumb waiter to transport food items from the garage level. The three-car garage includes a space for a golf cart that will easily whisk you down to Emerald Bay’s pristine white sand beach. 

 

DETAILS

New Lease

Covered ocean-view deck with a glass dining table, seating, and coastal views.

For Lease

Ocean-view terrace with cushioned wood seating overlooking the coast at sunset.

For Lease

Vacant room with tiled floors and wide windows overlooking a patio, greenery, and the ocean.

For Lease

Two-story white house with a two-car garage, dormer windows, stone steps, and trimmed hedges.

For Lease

Laguna Beach home balcony with white chairs, terracotta tiles, and ocean views.

For Lease

Large two-story home with white trim, a broad driveway, brick steps, and landscaped front gardens.

For Lease

Tiled entryway with open wooden doors leading toward a furnished living area and ocean-view windows.

For Lease

Courtyard patio with cushioned seating, a wooden balcony, and illuminated glass doors.

There are currently 3 active homes for sale in Emerald Bay

ranging in price from $11,000,000 to $14,900,000.

Current Emerald Bay Listings
Current Emerald Bay Rentals
Contact me for Emerald Bay pocket listings.
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Maura Short is known for her strong work ethic, broad industry know-how, and passion for architecture, in addition to her extensive network, confidentiality, and moral code. Combined with her wide-ranging local expertise, all of these assets result in favorable outcomes for both buyers and sellers under her care.
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