Demand Remains High

May 1, 2022

Good morning,

New records continue to be set for both home prices and rental rates. While housing demand will eventually slow as interest rates continue to climb and remain elevated, tight supply is the key to higher housing costs in the short term and the long term.

With more homes being listed onto the market in the next few months while home building momentum continues to push forward in the second quarter, housing costs will likely ease later this year but may not start leveling off until after the spring home-buying season.

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Information + Updates

Did You Know? The US dollar surged to its highest level in two decades as investors ramped up bets that aggressive interest rate rises from the Federal Reserve will leave other big central banks trailing far in its wake. (Bloomberg)

Here are some prices from 1980 - just 42 years ago - to better understand how inflation has been around forever.....

Average Income: $19,173/year.....today its around $53,490...up about 275%

New House: $68,714....today median is $392,000....up over 550%

New Car: $7,201...today it's about $46,000...up over 600%

Average Rent: $300/month...today it's about $1,295/month....up over 425%

Harvard Tuition: $5,300/year...today it $51,143.....up over 950%

Gasoline: $1.19/gallon....today it's $4.14/gallon...up almost 350%

....which may showcase how education inflation makes gas inflation appear....low?

Did You Know? AMAZON saw online sales decline in the first quarter of 2022: is the shop-from-home craze waning now that COVID is waning? Most of Amazon's losses came from their investment in electric truck maker Rivian. Amazon doubled its workforce during the pandemic, growing from 798,000 employees at the end of 2019 to 1.62 million at the end of the first quarter of 2022....DOUBLED! An investment in the future perhaps? Like Google and Facebook earlier this week, Amazon is attributing much of the slowdown to macroeconomic conditions and Russia’s invasion of Ukraine.

Did You Know? China's COVID-related lockdowns are almost certain to impact global supply chains....and potentially further fuel global inflation. Lockdowns could impact commodity demand - and prices - which may offset some of the inflationary pressures. China's unpopular lockdown policy may be better understood by China's extremely low vaccination rates amongst the most vulnerable - the elderly - and it has very limited intensive care capacity. Their vaccine is not terribly effective either. Managing a 10 million-person-plus city is very different from a 1 million person city.... Beijing's population is around 21 million…..

Did You Know? While everyone thinks high inflation will continue, Paul Krugman frets that, if anything, the central bank is overreacting to inflation. Surging gas prices accounted for about half of March’s price rise, but it now appears that the world oil market overshot in response to Russia’s invasion of Ukraine. Krugman speaks to the 'bullwhip effect' where a surge in interest in a specific product causes prices to surge.....temporarily....till that demand wanes and normalizes.

Did You Know? The NASDAQ average is down around 20% for 2022.....but let us not forget that the NASDAQ is still up about 45% in the past 2 years....and up over 53% in three years. Excessive gains are usually likely to adjust.

Did You Know? The hottest job markets in the US are in 5 different states, all in midsize cities, all with a population under 2.3 million. They’re in states with fairly low income taxes, or none at all. And their climates allow for outdoor activities all year round. They are: Austin, TX; Nashville, TN.; Raleigh, N.C.; Salt Lake City; and Jacksonville, Fla. All of the top 5 cities are home to large universities, state capitals or high-tech employers. Florida, Texas and Tennessee have no personal state income tax, while North Carolina and Utah have income and corporate tax rates of roughly 5% or less. The larger cities - Miami, Los Angeles, New York, Chicago, Dallas, Atlanta, Washington DC - all had one thing in common: less hot job markets than smaller cities....but all much hotter than the job markets in 2019. (Moodys/WSJ)

Did You Know? In 2021 reports showed that over 70% of the 400 richest people in the U.S. and 88% of millionaires are self-made. I absolutely LOVE this. (WSJ)

Remember Mom

Mothers Make A Difference

May is for Mothers. This week I was reading about these inspiring mothers…. Remember to call your mother, or give her a hug on May 8th!

NANCY EDISON

The youngest of Nancy Edison’s seven kids was Thomas Alva Edison. Although some stories about his mother’s virtues were most likely exaggerated, we do know that rather than give up on his education, Nancy Edison decided to homeschool her son after his teacher deemed him "addled" (i.e. mentally ill or incompetent). Edison, who may just have been dyslexic in a time before that learning disorder was studied or understood, said of her: “My mother was the making of me. She was so true, so sure of me; and I felt I had something to live for, someone I must not disappoint.”

MARY KAY ASH

Mary Kay Ash (1918—2001) was 45 years old when she founded Mary Kay Cosmetics in 1963, and it has since become a billion-dollar cosmetics company. As a single mom, she was working in sales at a home products company to support her three children, but she was repeatedly passed over for promotions, despite her being one of the top sales directors. Ash took those skills with her when she launched her namesake company, and she worked to give hundreds of thousands of women the opportunity to work as sales consultants on their own time, effectively becoming their own bosses.

ANN JARVIS

Ann Jarvis (1832—1905) inspired the movement that eventually made Mother’s Day into a national holiday. After most of her babies died of diseases—only four of her possibly 13 children survived to adulthood—she wanted to help other mothers. She organized Mother's Day Work Clubs in what is now West Virginia to help provide medical care, raise money for medicines, and improve sanitary conditions for poor mothers.

After her death, Jarvis’s daughter Anna Jarvis built off of the work of her mother by writing letters and giving speeches in support of Mother’s Day, and President Woodrow Wilson designated Mother’s Day as a national holiday in 1914. Ironically, Jarvis never became a mother herself, and she became horrified by how flower, chocolate, and greeting card companies exploited Mother’s Day for their own financial gain. Jarvis advocated boycotts of Mother’s Day and tried to sue companies that were commercializing the holiday. But the sentiment of appreciating mothers and all the work they do remained, even if the commercial aspect never disappeared.

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Demand Remains High

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