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The White House is shifting its focus on lowering Fed rates to lowering yields on the 10-year Treasury which directly impacts mortgage rates but nobody controls the Treasury yield: it’s set by one of the world’s biggest and most liquid markets. In the years before the Global Financial Crisis, Alan Greenspan’s Fed famously tried to push up the 10-year yield and couldn’t. To keep yields down, central banks and governments can buy industrial quantities of bonds, the dreaded quantitative easing, a policy that amplified inequality to excruciating levels and that nobody wants to repeat. Universally economists and industry leaders believe tax cuts mean higher deficits and higher yields to finance them, while tariffs will raise inflation. The 10-year has dipped from a high in January of almost 4.8% to below 4.45%. (Bloomberg)
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AMAZON said this week that it ONLY expects revenue growth of 5% to 9% in the first quarter.....Wall Street was sooooooo disappointed! 🙃
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The world's wellness economy is worth $6.3 trillion and forecast to reach $9 trillion by 2028. About $2 trillion is spent in the US alone......
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New York used to be the world's largest city population-wise: Today it's #11, behind Tokyo (37 million!) Delhi, Shanghai, Sao Paulo, Mumbai, Cairo, Beijing, Dhaka, Osaka, Mexico City.
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Ferrari - whose cars start at $250,000 - posted net profit of $1.58 billion for 2024, a 21% increase from the previous year....slightly higher than the costs of rising labor and materials.... (it's called because-you-can LUXEflation)...and...builders take note: much of this was fueled by growing demand for personalization. Yes, personalization can be profitable!
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Americans are broke? Inflation has decimated us? But.....its estimated $1.39 billion will be spent on Super-Bowl LIX betting this year! That equates to roughly 17,000 $80,000 down payments on a $400,000 home……
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New York's largest retail tenant is.....a health club, no not a pizza joint! Equinox is Manhattan's largest retail tenant, surpassing Macy's in total square footage, with 31 locations spanning 1.3 Million square feet. Like a Starbucks or Whole Foods, Equinox has become a neighborhood amenity. (Commercial Real Estate)
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An estimated 73 million boomers, ages 60-78, live in the US, roughly 25% of the population. They own around 38% of US homes.....possibly the most potent source of future housing inventory? Many people shed their homes - or downsize - after the age of 75 years old....some estimate that by 2035, the number of homes owned by baby boomers will drop from 32 million to 23 million freeing up 9.2 million homes in the US housing market. Many will require renovation/restoration and/or rebuilding. (WSJ)
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Dubai is adding a new round of ostentatious mansions and penthouses priced between $60-120 million as developers court millionaires from around the world. The trappings are increasingly extravagant, such as a movable floor for a client’s swimming pool that rises to meld with the garden tiles during parties. What about a giant glass dome built in the center of a mansion meant to cover a pool and spa that can be retracted when the owners wanted to sun themselves? A 55 feet by 13 feet single pane of glass to embrace views with an underground room for the giant pane to descend into when lowered? A winding pool to allow residents to swim from the bar to the spa at the other end of the garden? Dubai’s market is bucking a global trend as prime residential prices slow or drop in many other international markets.....mostly driven by very low taxation policies. In 2024 435 homes priced $10 million and more sold in Dubai, reaching a record and surpassing New York and Hong Kong. Most buyers are coming from the UK, China, Russia, Pakistan and India. There are no real estate taxes in Dubai either.... (Bloomberg)
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You can only raise prices while people are willing/able to pay them....luxury brands Versace and Michael Kors' steep price increases to aim for the higher priced (higher profit) markets and other missteps led to a nearly 12% decline in quarterly revenue during the important holiday period. While fewer people are spending and you raise prices to compensate for this, sooner or later you might hit a wall of resistance as your audience shrinks too far. Kors aims to lower pricing by 30-40%! (WSJ)
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