October 17, 2026
Good morning,
Emerald Bay is a tale of two markets right now.
I went through every recent sale in Emerald Bay, and here’s what I see.
The trophy homes don’t wait. Eleven homes have closed this year, for more than $214 million combined. Three of them, including the $110 million county record, sold quietly off market and never had a public price at all. When a property is truly one of a kind, the buyer is often already waiting.
Homes priced right sold close to asking. Three Emerald Bay homes closed within about 4% of their asking price, and one sold for exactly what the seller asked. The homes check the boxes for the specific buyer. Those sellers priced to the market from the first day, and the market rewarded them.
But there are other homes that didn’t check the boxes…. Homes that need a remodel or too much work took a haircut. Across all eight homes that were listed publicly, buyers paid about $89 million against $110 million in combined asking prices. That’s roughly 19% less.
All of Laguna is showing the same split. Asking prices citywide are up 34% from a year ago, while the typical sale price has barely moved. Inventory is down almost 29%, so buyers have fewer choices, but they still won’t overpay.
The lesson is simple. The record sale is a headline, not a pricing guide. The sales that matter for your home are the ones that actually look like yours, and I can tell you exactly why some homes linger while others sell in a week.
As always, I’m here if you want to talk through any of it. | 
